Ukraine Might Have to Give Up Big Concessions

Trump Talks Peace Negotiations with Russia, Ukraine

Between talks with U.S. President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, there is a possibility that Ukraine might have to give some of its territory to the Kremlin, give up ambition of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and ban western forces from entering the war-torn country. This is part of several negotiation talks being developed between leaders from Russia, Ukraine and the U.S.

Russia does not want Ukraine to join NATO because of their forces` proximity to Russia.

There is already a significant amount of NATO countries bordering Russia with Finland and Norway in the Nordic region, Latvia and Estonia in the west, along with Poland and Lithuania, which surrounds its Kaliningrad exclave.

According to the New York Times, Russia`s President Vladimir Putin is ready to talk with Zelenskyy, with the Ukrainian leader saying they could temporarily cede land to end the conflict, while “[t]he Kremlin had purportedly accepted Western security guarantees for Ukraine effectively as strong as NATO protection.”

But Russia has not confirmed plans for Putin to have a sit-down meeting with Zelenskyy about those security guarantees.

International relations professor at San Francisco State University, who lived in both Russia and Ukraine for some time, Dr. Andrei Tsygankov, said it is unlikely that the leaders of the two nations will meet.
.
“It does not seem likely that they will meet anytime soon because the differences are too large and there are no signs either on the Russian side or on the Ukrainian side that they are willing to breach this difference,” Tsygankov said. “The Russian side already stated on several occasions that this meeting is, is not planned, is not scheduled anytime soon, that the likelihood of this meeting anytime soon is very low.”

Moreover, Tsygankov also cited Russia`s Minister of Foreign Affairs Sergey Lavrov that there is no likelihood for the meeting “[b]ecause this meeting must be prepared for a long time.”

“Well, it’s hard to predict” whether the leaders of Russia and Ukraine will have a meeting or even end the war, said Ukrainian Lecturer Iryna Zaverukha of University of Southern California, who teaches International Influence Law and Power. This is because “President Putin and (the) Russian government frames its policy in a way that they strip legitimacy from the Ukrainian government.”

Soon after Trump’s summit with Putin, there was a meeting where Zelenskyy and “seven European leaders (met with the U.S. President) in one room and on a very short notice,” Zaverukha said.

In June 2024, Putin demanded the Donbas region, which includes Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. After Putin`s meeting with Trump earlier this month, to stop fighting in other regions in Ukraine, Russia wants the Donbas region,
which is less than what he wanted last year.

Prof. Tsygankov of SFSU explains, “As require requirement for Russia to stop military actions in Ukraine, included incorporation into Russian territory, annexation of four territories in addition to Crimea, this four territories who are Luhansk Oblast and
Donetsk Oblast and in addition to these two Oblasts, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson area. At this point, Russia controls about 80%, little bit more than 80% of the Donbas area and it controls a little bit more than 50% of the other two parts.”

Despite the possibility of ceding territory, Zaverukha, the lecturer at USC, said that the territory will not solve much.

Putin wants all the territory that it already controls to stop the war in Ukraine. “I want to be clear that the progress that Russian army made is not as significant,” Zaverukha said. “Even though when you look at the map of Ukraine and, and of course significant part of the territories is under occupation, Still, if you consider that from the time of full scale invasion, which was February 2022, it’s not that significant advantage that Russian armed forces made.”

Veteran U.S. diplomat Richard Haas, known for negotiations with Cyprus, the Middle East and South Asia, talked about Putin`s overall goal for Ukraine, which is for the country to cease to exist as a nation.

According to Politico, “Putin doesn’t want a deal — Putin doesn’t want a deal that Ukraine can accept. Putin wants a deal where Ukraine would essentially, now or in the future, cease to be an independent, sovereign country with ties to the West. So, I am
skeptical in the extreme that a lasting peace could be negotiated.”

Prof. Tsygankov believed that the war between Russia and Ukraine had started because of anti-Russian policies in Ukraine along with the U.S. and NATO not having interest in the region.

Putin`s actions made it clear that would be an aggressor toward Ukraine. “And many of us, many experts, many scholars have warned that this is moving in a very dangerous direction. And we’re still extremely surprised, very unpleasantly surprised that this war started,” Tsygankov said.

Zaverukha said that Russia views their war in Ukraine as an internal matter.

“Do you know how Russia calls this war? They call it special military operation,” Zaverukha said. “So Russia is able to frame this invasion as an internal matter.”

To justify fighting Ukraine, Putin is comparing the Ukrainian government to the Nazis of WWII or a military group from Kyiv.

“So he brings a parallel to the Nazis fascism, calling the regime Nazi regime or Kievan junta. So he create that, that domestic enemy, trying, trying not to blame, like the whole Ukrainian nation, but trying to localize the enemy. And that would help him to justify the war,” Zaverukha said.

But Ukraine was exercising their right to sovereignty as Russia perceives Ukraine as one nation. That`s why “Putin stripped Ukraine’s government of legitimacy, it’s because he doesn’t want to see Ukraine as (an) independent country.”

Another example of Russian propaganda is Russia`s Foreign Minister of Affairs, Sergey Lavrov, said there is the priority of protecting Russian speaking populations. “Now he talks about protecting Russian citizens,” Zaverukha said.

After Trump’s meeting with Putin, the American leader had given Russia a 10 to 12 day deadline to take steps toward ending the war with Ukraine or face consequences, angering Putin over the 3.5-year conflict, which included sanctions.

Russian leaders are not pleased about the U.S.’s intervention and desire to end the war with Ukraine, with former Prime Minister of Russia, Dmitri Medvedev comparing it to an act towards war.

When NATO Chief Mark Rutte visited Kyiv to renew the alliance by providing Ukraine with reliable security, President Zelenskyy voiced his feeling that Russia was only interested in negotiations to avoid sanctions.

This is the second time Russia has occupied Ukrainian territory. Back in 2014, Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula, meaning Russia had its eye on Ukraine for at least 11 years.

Due to Russian occupation, Ukraine has lost three million citizens and an estimated 20,000 children have been kidnapped by the Russian officials to be put up for adoption with the intention to wipe out their Ukrainian ancestry.

Every Ukrainian has been touched by the war.

Zaverukha, lecturer at USC, returns to Ukraine every year and the last time she was there was this summer. In the western part of the country where her family lives, Zaverukha heard air raid sirens every night due to Russian missile attacks. She knew someone who was killed in the war when a missile hit their building.

“In fact, my hairdresser, the person who. I know, I know she got killed in her own house because the rocket hit her home and she was in her bed. So 12 people of that building got killed,” Zaverukha said. “So people are dying, and people see this destruction of the
war everywhere. There is no safe place. But, of course, closer to the front line, it’s a hell.”